You only need two things to be a trusted advisor. You need trust. And you need advice.If you must rely on a subject matter expert to provide the advice because you are not knowledgeable enough about your industry, your client’s industry, the issues impacting your client’s business, the potential solutions, and the trade-offs they may be required to make to produce better results, you can never be a trusted advisor.If you know nothing with the exception of the people on your team who do know things, you can never be your dream client’s go-to-person. You are just a guy who knows a guy.You can get better fast. You can learn most of what you need to know, without having to be as deep as the SME you carry around like a crutch.The NotebookThe first thing you need to do to bridge the gap in your knowledge is to buy a notebook. Get yourself one of those nice Moleskin notebooks, or maybe something from Baron Fig. Get something nice because you are going to carry it with you on every call you make—with or without a subject matter expert.You are going to capture your subject matter’s expert in this notebook.On any call where you need a subject matter expert, write down any question that your prospect or client asks them. Then write down their answer.When your subject matter asks your client a question, write down that question, along with the client’s answer.When your subject matter expert shares some insight or some piece of technical knowledge, write it down.If your subject matter is talking, you are listening and taking notes.Post Call TrainingWhen you debrief after the meeting, you are going to use that time to massively increase your knowledge and understanding. The goal is to rid yourself of your reliance on a subject matter expert and become one yourself.Ask your subject matter expert why your client asked them the questions that they asked and what makes it important to them. Then ask them why they answered they way the did, whether or not that’s a standard answer, and what another answer might have been and why it would have been wrong.Then, go through the questions your SME asked your client and ask why they asked what they asked, and why it was important. Have them explain the client’s answer, and what it means in terms of your potential solution.Repeat all of these things back to your subject matter expert to make sure you understand them.Not Knowing is Not Knowing NothingIt’s okay to not know things. It is not okay to know nothing.You will find that after repeating this process on five or six good sales call, you will start to understand a lot of what you need to know, and you will be able to ask and answer questions without the aid of a subject matter expert. This is a matter of intentions.When something is super technical, you can always bring the people you need to support you. But most of the time, especially early in the sales process, you will have the ability to create value for your client without any support. Essential Reading! Get my 2nd book: The Lost Art of Closing “In The Lost Art of Closing, Anthony proves that the final commitment can actually be one of the easiest parts of the sales process—if you’ve set it up properly with other commitments that have to happen long before the close. The key is to lead customers through a series of necessary steps designed to prevent a purchase stall.” Buy Now
Geje Eustaquio declared the winner. Photo from ONE CHAMPIONSHIPGeje Eustaquio’s quest for glory takes him to Indonesia as he leads two other Filipinos in action at ONE: Total Victory on September 16 at Jakarta Convention Center.The 28-year-old from Team Lakay will wage war against former ONE Flyweight World Champion Kairat Akhmetov of Kazakhstan in the main event of what promises to be an action-packed card.ADVERTISEMENT ‘Nothing has improved’: Hidilyn frustrated with the state of PH weightlifting Don’t miss out on the latest news and information. Read Next UPLB exempted from SEA Games class suspension SEA Games in Calabarzon safe, secure – Solcom chief E.T. returns to earth, reunites with grown-up Elliott in new ad WATCH: Streetboys show off slick dance moves in Vhong Navarro’s wedding LATEST STORIES Eustaquio (9-5), who is fresh from his split decision victory against Anatpong Bunrad last May, seeks to continue his ascent in the flyweight rankings and inch closer to getting his shot on the gold.Akhmetov (23-1), meanwhile, is eyeing to bounce back after falling to Adriano Moraes last month and reclaim his belt.FEATURED STORIESSPORTSWATCH: Drones light up sky in final leg of SEA Games torch runSPORTSSEA Games: Philippines picks up 1st win in men’s water poloSPORTSMalditas save PH from shutoutAlso representing the Philippines in the Jakarta card are strawweight Roy Doliguez and flyweight Ramon Gonzales.The 35-year-old Doliguez is looking to snap his three-match losing skid and once again showcase his striking prowess as he takes on former Shooto South American Strawweight Champion Yago Bryan of Brazil. LOOK: Venues for 2019 SEA Games Catriona Gray spends Thanksgiving by preparing meals for people with illnesses View comments ONE: Geje Eustaquio, Adriano Moraes looking for convincing finish to trilogy PLAY LIST 01:27ONE: Geje Eustaquio, Adriano Moraes looking for convincing finish to trilogy01:22Learning doesn’t stop for Geje Eustaquio—inside and outside ONE cage02:18Alvarez ready to take risk vs Folayang, looks to end clash by ‘knockout or submission’01:37Protesters burn down Iran consulate in Najaf01:47Panelo casts doubts on Robredo’s drug war ‘discoveries’01:29Police teams find crossbows, bows in HK university01:35Panelo suggests discounted SEA Games tickets for students02:49Robredo: True leaders perform well despite having ‘uninspiring’ boss02:42PH underwater hockey team aims to make waves in SEA Games MOST READ LOOK: Loisa Andalio, Ronnie Alonte unwind in Amanpulo for 3rd anniversary Hitman MMA’s Gonzales, meanwhile, will bank on his karate background as he faces off against Liu De Li Ge Ri Hu of Mongolia.Other matches announced for the card are the flyweight bout between hometown bet Stefer Rahardian against Sim Bunsrun; the heavyweight clash between Alain Ngalani of Cameroon and Hideki Sekine of Japan; Indonesian martial artist Sunoto versus 19-year-old featherweight Thai Rithy of Cambodia; Indonesian Jeremy Meciaz against Hisyam Samsudin of Malaysia in another heavyweight bout; Liberian striker Jerome S. Paye versus former Thai boxing world champion Yodsanan Sityodtong; 24-year-old Adrian Matheis of Indonesia squaring off against the debuting Phat Soda of Cambodia; and bantamweights Riski Umar and Adi Nugroho lock horns in the undercard. Brace for potentially devastating typhoon approaching PH – NDRRMC
Training his guns again on sports utility vehicles (SUVs), Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh on Tuesday asked the users of these fuel-guzzling cars to pay full market price for diesel, which is subsidised for the benefit of farmers.Ramesh, however, made it clear that his “deliberate” criticism of the SUVs need not be seen as him being against the automobile sector.He had recently called SUVs as “criminals” and “Socially Useless Vehicles” for being bad emitters, fuelling a controversy in the auto sector. Germany, which is home to auto major BMW, had also taken strong exception to the remarks.”Why should they get subsidised fuel meant for farmers,” Ramesh asked, while speaking at a conference on 5th Sustainability Summit organised by Confederation of Indian Industry (CII).”We introduce the (diesel) subsidy for a certain economic purposes but have ended up with a wholly different purpose,” he said, favouring incentives to the firms aiming at sustainable development.Ramesh, however, also made it clear he is not trying to hurt the growth of the auto industry in the country.”I am not knocking the growth of the automotive industry, but those who want to use diesel cars must pay the full market price for the fuel. Why should they get subsidised fuel meant for farmers?” he said.The environment minister also said there was a need for creating an incentive structure from a fiscal point of view, particularly which rewards.”We need to move to a system which looks at rewarding or incentivise those companies that actually promote the objective of sustainable development, that promote energy conservation, water conservation and protection and preservation of natural resources,” Ramesh said.advertisement- With inputs from PTI
Football is a passion for the city couple Pannalal (81) and Chaitali (71), which has taken them to eight World Cups previously and the 2014 Brazil edition will be no exception either, though this could be their last.It all began in 1982 when the football-crazy couple, who live in a narrow bylane at Kidderpore in the south-western part of the city, when they spent one summer at their friend’s place in London and decided to go to Spain to watch the World Cup.”Such was the excitement that we have not been able to miss any World Cup since then,” the Chatterjees, who leave Kolkata on June 17, said.The next time around their fervour reached a different height after witnessing the Diego Maradona’s hand of God goal and bumping into Pele, two of their fondest memories till date.”It’s difficult to explain in words how much we love the sport,” the Chatterjees, who have been to Mexico, Italy, then America, the fifth was France, then Germany, then Japan-Korea, then South Africa and now Brazil, he added.A former Kolkata Port Trust employee, Pannalal gets a small pension of about Rs 7,500 and have a saree business as they save money every month to meet their expenses every four years.The couple say they always take the Tricolour with them and keep them flying high, but regret they feel embarrassed when curious spectators ask them when India will play football.”We have no answer to their queries… But we tell them we are proud Indians and have come here to watch the World Cup,” Pannalal said.advertisementArdent supporters of Brazil, it will be a dream come true for them to witness the extravaganza this time.”Brazil is the the Mecca of football. This was our only wish to watch World Cup in Brazil. We don’t know whether we will be able to go the next time,” he added.
There’s a reason why Urban Meyer is one of the country’s best recruiters. The Ohio State coach and his staff are thorough – ridiculously thorough. The Buckeyes’ recruiting staff sent a Block O Valentine’s Day card to the mother of Brendan Ferns, a four-star linebacker in the 2016 class considering Ohio State. Here it is: Ohio State coaches with a smart mailer. Sent valentine cards to mom of 2016 Brendan Ferns. pic.twitter.com/yPQjNWoSZn— Tom VanHaaren (@TomVH) February 14, 2015Ferns, a 6-foot-3, 223-pound linebacker out of Saint Clairsville, Ohio, is ranked the No. 2 inside linebacker in the country by 247 Sports’ Composite Rankings. He is reportedly considering OSU, Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma and West Virginia, among other schools. [11W]
Cleveland Browns’ Spelling ErrorFor the second year in a row, the Cleveland Browns had some difficulty announcing one of their first-round picks on Twitter. Last year, while announcing the selection of Johnny Manziel, Cleveland’s Twitter account misspelled “22nd.” It took them three tries to get it right. And tonight, while announcing the selection of Florida State offensive lineman Cameron Erving, the Browns spelled the player’s last name wrong. It’s “Erving,” not “Irving.”The Browns just misspelled the name of their own 1st round pick. Sigh…. pic.twitter.com/eF1Y0uDcEi— Al Ciammaichella (@Gotribe31) May 1, 2015Thankfully, it didn’t take them too long to correct it. With the 19th pick in the 2015 #NFLDraft the #Browns select Florida State OL Cameron Erving. #BrownsDraft pic.twitter.com/e3KbWO4A6E— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) May 1, 2015Do better, Cleveland.
Animal Defenders International (ADI) applauds the announcement by the Scottish Government to imminently introduce legislation to ban the use of wild animals in circuses in Scotland.First Minister Nicola Sturgeon outlined her plans in the Scottish Parliament this week, which include their intentions to introduce a Wild Animals in Circuses Bill.The new Bill will:• Ban the use (performance and exhibition) of such animals in travelling circuses on ethical grounds on the basis that this practice is morally objectionable to a large proportion of Scottish society• Put in place enforcement provisions and sanctions for non-compliance with the banJan Creamer, President of Animal Defenders International, said: “Circuses are no place for wild animals and the public in Scotland, England and Wales overwhelmingly support a ban on wild animal acts. We are delighted that the Scottish Government has decided to press ahead and end the suffering. We hope that Westminster will do the same.”The new Scottish Bill follows a public consultation two years ago “Should the use of wild animals in travelling circuses be banned in Scotland?” by the Scottish parliament in 2014. The results revealed a huge distaste for such acts amongst the public, with 98% of Scots backing a ban.Scottish actress Annette Crosbie highlighted the terrible price paid by animals in circuses, describing the ‘form of entertainment’ as ’’Victorian” and “endangers and degrades helpless animals.”Years of ADI investigations in the UK and around the world have exposed the inevitable suffering of animals made to perform and tour with circuses. Given the constant travel and their temporary nature, circuses cannot provide animals with adequate facilities to keep them physically or psychologically healthy. Welfare is always compromised.32 countries around the world have introduced prohibitions on animals in circuses to date, with England and Wales promising to ban wild animal acts. Please visit www.ad-international.org/donate to help ADI stop circus suffering.
Before Wednesday’s trade headlined by Paul Goldschmidt, the Arizona Diamondbacks and St. Louis Cardinals were relatively even on paper. But today, the two clubs inhabit completely different neighborhoods.Arizona and St. Louis ended last year separated by 25 points in Elo rating, and the teams entered Wednesday just two games apart in FanGraphs’ projected standings for 2019. With the trade of the six-time All-Star, the clubs have seemingly chosen different paths. The Diamondbacks appear ready to join the Seattle Mariners as teams that contended in 2018, fell short and have elected to become less competitive to restore their depleted talent bases. The Cardinals add a star talent with the hope that they can close the gap in the National League Central and return the club to the postseason after a three-year absence.The Diamondbacks are in a division with the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers, who are loaded with cash and talent and are heavy favorites in the NL West. Arizona already lost one key free-agent pitcher in Patrick Corbin, who agreed Tuesday to a deal with the Washington Nationals, and free-agent center fielder A.J. Pollock also figures to land elsewhere. The club has also expressed interest in trading ace Zack Greinke, whose contract accounted for 25.8 percent of the club’s opening day payroll this past season — the second-highest share in the majors. It’s a reminder that such contracts can hamstring teams’ abilities to build complete, competitive rosters.Conversely, the Cardinals do not have a clear super team in their way in the NL Central. The Cubs might have limited ability to improve this offseason, but the FanGraphs’ forecast has the Brewers regressing in 2019. The Cardinals entered Wednesday projected for four fewer wins than the Cubs, three more wins than the Pirates and six more wins than the Brewers. After the trade, the FanGraphs projection had the Cardinals picking up three wins to be just one game behind the Cubs and nine games better than the Brewers. (The Diamondbacks fell from 82 to 80 wins.) The Cardinals have been stuck in the standings purgatory — winning 88, 83 and 86 games the past three years — where no club wants to reside, but they could break that streak this year.The Diamondbacks went for it last year on the heels of a 93-win season and in the final year of control over Corbin and Pollock. St. Louis is now in a similar situation, as contributors like Marcell Ozuna, Miles Mikolas and Michael Wacha are free agents after 2019. Goldschmidt is under control for just one season before entering free agency. For the Cardinals, this is a win-now move.And what St. Louis received in the deal is not only one of the game’s best hitters but also one of its most consistent.In wins above replacement,1Using FanGraphs’ metric. Goldschmidt finished the past three seasons at 5.1, 5.2 and 5.0. He’s been worth at least 4.3 WAR every season since his first full year in 2012, when he finished at 2.8. Goldschmidt’s career slash line is .297/.398/.532. His slash line this past season? .290/.389/.533. He’s played in at least 155 games in five of the past six years.Goldschmidt, 31, is still near his physical prime and offers consistent star power for a club sorely lacking it. St. Louis thought it was landing a star in Ozuna last winter, but he had a mildly disappointing season. Since 2016, the only Cardinals to deliver seasons of 4 WAR or better were Matt Carpenter (5.0) and Mikolas (4.3) this past season and Tommy Pham, who was traded to Tampa Bay last season, in 2017 (6.1). Goldschmidt’s 4.3 projected WAR is a big upgrade over the Cardinals’ weakest projected starting infielder, Jedd Gyorko (1.7 WAR) — who could be supplanted in the lineup by Carpenter moving from first to third. And Goldschmidt may not even be the Cards’ final step: Ownership hasn’t ruled out a pursuit of Bryce Harper.While there is not a young star in the trade package, Goldschmidt didn’t come cheap. Some executives liked the return for Arizona, which included young major leaguers in pitcher Luke Weaver and catcher Carson Kelly, infield prospect Andy Young and the Cardinals’ Compensation Round B selection in the 2019 draft. The deal gives the Diamondbacks youth and a number of controllable years.The Diamondbacks had the fifth-oldest groups of batters (at an average of 29.2 years old)2Weighted by games played. and pitchers (29.6) last year. According to FanGraphs, Arizona entered the offseason with the game’s 26th-ranked farm system. Teams prize young, cheap, controllable talent — and now more than ever before, they are willing to endure deep, painful rebuilds to accumulate high draft picks and signing bonus pool space. The Astros and Cubs created a model to get to super-team status that other teams are following. Those clubs took rebuilding to extreme degrees, stringing together multiple 95-plus-loss seasons, but those paths resulted in World Series titles.The Diamondbacks consider themselves to be retooling rather than entering a deep rebuild, though that might be an optimistic assessment: Arizona third baseman Jake Lamb, outfielder David Peralta and starting pitchers Robbie Ray and Taijuan Walker are all eligible to become free agents within the next two to three years.Kelly and Weaver immediately fill needs on the major league roster. They are not prospects that are years away from the majors, though they also lack star-level upside.3The Diamondbacks were in the market for a catcher after free agent Jeff Mathis signed with the Texas Rangers. “There are decisions that you want to do and there are decisions you feel like you have to do,” Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen said of Wednesday’s trade.More than ever, teams seem comfortable entering retooling periods, but not every rebuild is a successful project. For the Cardinals, perhaps they’ll have to consider such a path down the road. As for 2019, they’re going for it.
Model CreatorsNate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine ReferencesBasketball-Reference.com / Real Plus-MinusElo ratings / Monte Carlo simulations / Box Plus/Minus / Simple Projection System The DetailsFiveThirtyEight’s NBA predictions have gone through quite an evolution over the years.Our first iteration simply relied on Elo ratings, the same old standby rating system we’ve used for college and pro football, college basketball, baseball, soccer, Formula One racing and probably some other sports I’m forgetting. Basic Elo is generally useful — and we still track it for teams going back throughout history — but it only knows who won each game, the margin of victory and where the game was played. So if a player is injured or traded — or resting, as is increasingly the case in the NBA — Elo wouldn’t be able to pick up on that when predicting games or know how to account for that in a team’s ratings going forward. In fact, even if a team simply made a big offseason splash (such as signing LeBron James or Kevin Durant), Elo would take a long time to figure that out, since it must infer a change in team talent from an uptick in on-court performance.To try to address that shortcoming, in 2015 we introduced a system we called “CARM-Elo.” This still used the Elo framework to handle game results, but it also used our CARMELO player projections to incorporate offseason transactions into the initial ratings for a given season. In a league like the NBA, where championships now feel like they’re won as much over the summer as during the season itself, this was an improvement. But it still had some real problems knowing which teams were actually in trouble heading into the playoffs and which ones were simply conserving energy for the games that matter. Since a team’s underlying talent is sometimes belied by its regular-season record — particularly in the case of a superteam — an Elo-based approach to updating ratings on a game-to-game basis can introduce more problems than it actually solves.Moving beyond EloOne attempt to salvage CARM-Elo was to apply a playoff experience adjustment for each team, acknowledging the NBA’s tendency for veteran-laden squads to play better in the postseason than we’d expect from their regular-season stats alone. This also helped some, but CARM-Elo still had problems with mega-talented clubs (such as the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors) that take their foot off the gas pedal late in the NBA’s long regular season. It was clear our prediction system needed a major overhaul, one that involved moving away from Elo almost completely.As we hinted at in our preview post for the 2018-19 season, we made some big changes to the way we predict the league that year. Chief among them is that our team ratings are now entirely based on our CARMELO player projections. Specifically, each team is judged according to the current level of talent on its roster and how much that talent is expected to play going forward. Here’s how each of those components work:Talent ratingsAt their core, our CARMELO projections forecast a player’s future by looking to the past, finding the most similar historical comparables and using their careers as a template for how a current player might fare over the rest of his playing days. After running a player through the similarity algorithm, CARMELO spits out offensive and defensive ratings for his next handful of seasons, which represent his expected influence on team efficiency (per 100 possessions) while he’s on the court. You can think of these as being similar to ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus or other adjusted plus-minus-style ratings.The player ratings are currently based on a blend between Real Plus-Minus (RPM), Box Plus/Minus (BPM) and, on defense, our new DRAYMOND metric. In our mind, each of these metrics represents a different facet of measuring player performance: BPM to capture and weight the player’s contributions in the traditional box score; RPM to measure the effect he has on his team’s efficiency when he is on the court; DRAYMOND to capture a critical but underutilized aspect of defense, which is to reduce opponent shooting percentages by contesting and otherwise disrupting shots. A blend of all applicable metrics appears in the CARMELO individual pages under the player’s offensive rating (using BPM and RPM) and defensive rating (using BPM, RPM and DRAYMOND).These blended ratings provide a prior for each player as he heads into the current season. But they must also be updated in-season based on a player’s performance level as the year goes on. To do that, we have two methods (for both offense and defense) depending on the data available:Using Real Plus-Minus and Box Plus/Minus. Ideally, both metrics will be published during a season, allowing us to use a blend (⅔ weight for RPM; ⅓ for BPM) on each side of the ball to update our prior ratings. When that happens, we assign a weight to the prior that is relative to 1 minute of current-season performance. On offense, that weight is calculated with a constant term of 416 minutes, plus 0.3 times a player’s minutes from the season before, plus 0.15 times his minutes from two seasons before, plus 0.05 times his minutes from three seasons before. That number is multiplied by his CARMELO preseason offensive rating and added to the product of his current-season minutes and current-season offensive plus/minus blend, and divided by the sum of current-season minutes and the prior weight to get an updated offensive rating. (The rating for players with 0 current-season minutes played is, by definition, the prior.) On defense, the weight has a constant of 60 minutes, plus 0.3 times a player’s minutes from the season before, plus 0.15 times his minutes from two seasons before, plus 0.05 times his minutes from three seasons before. This weight is combined with current-season performance in the same manner as on offense.Using Box Plus/Minus only. At a certain stage of each season, ESPN will not have released RPM data for the current season yet. During that time, we must update the in-season ratings using only BPM, which is usually available since the very start of the season via Basketball-Reference.com. Just like with our blended number from above, we assign a weight to the prior that is relative to 1 minute of current-season performance — but we must use different weights because BPM is not quite as reliable an indicator of player performance as RPM (or our RPM-BPM blend). On offense, the weight is calculated with a constant term of 703 minutes, plus 0.27 times a player’s minutes from the season before, plus 0.13 times his minutes from two seasons before, plus 0.04 times his minutes from three seasons before. That number is multiplied by his CARMELO preseason offensive rating and added to the product of his current-season minutes and current-season offensive plus/minus blend, and divided by the sum of the current-season minutes and the prior weight to get an updated offensive rating.On defense, the weight has a constant of 242 minutes, plus 0.48 times a player’s minutes from the season before, plus 0.24 times his minutes from two seasons before, plus 0.08 times his minutes from three seasons before. This weight is combined with current-season performance in the same manner as on offense.Regardless of the version being used, these talent ratings will update every day throughout the regular season and playoffs, gradually changing based on how a player performs during the season.Overnight updatesBecause our data sources for player ratings (ESPN and Basketball-Reference.com) don’t update individual statistics immediately after the end of every game, we added a function to preliminarily estimate the changes to a team’s rating as soon as a game ends. For each player in our database, we adjust his offensive and defensive ratings up or down very slightly after each game based on his team’s margin of victory relative to CARMELO’s expectation going into the game. These numbers add up at the team level to reflect how we predict that a team’s ratings will change in the wake of a given result.The advantage of this is that we can provide an instant update to the model as soon as a game ends. However, since these estimates are stopgaps, they will be changed to the RPM/BPM-based ratings from above when the data from those sources updates. After any given game, these differences should be small and generally barely noticeable. But we think this change will be particularly worthwhile in the playoffs, when team odds can shift dramatically based on a single game’s result.Playing-time projectionsNow that we have constantly updating player ratings, we also need a way to combine them at the team level based on how much court time each player is getting in the team’s rotation.For CARM-Elo’s preseason ratings, we used to accomplish this by manually estimating how many minutes each player would get at each position. Needless to say, this is a lot more work to do in-season (and it requires a lot of arbitrary guesswork). So as part of our move toward algorithmizing our predictions in a more granular way, we developed a program that turns simple inputs into a matrix of team minutes-per-game estimates, broken down by position.This system requires only a rank-ordered list of players on a given team by playing-time preference (the default order is sorted by expected rest-of-season wins above replacement), a list of eligible positions a player is allowed to play (the system will assign minutes at every player’s “primary” position or positions first, before cycling back through and giving minutes at any “secondary” positions when necessary to fill out the roster) and some minutes constraints based largely on CARMELO’s updating minutes-per-game projections.For that last part, we have developed an in-season playing-time projection similar to the one we use to update our individual offensive and defensive ratings. For each player, CARMELO will project a preseason MPG estimate based on his own history and the record of his similar comparables. We then adjust that during the season by applying a weight of 12.6 games to the preseason MPG projection, added to his current-season minutes and divided by 12.6 plus his current-season games played. (Interestingly, this implies that the amount of weight the MPG prior receives is the same regardless of whether the player is a fresh-faced rookie or a grizzled veteran.)Those minutes are used as the default for our program, which then automatically creates a team’s depth chart and assigns minutes by position according to its sorting algorithm. The defaults, however, can and will be tweaked by our staffers to help the program generate more accurate rosters. For instance, we can mark certain games in which a player is injured, resting, suspended or otherwise unavailable, which will tell the program to ignore that player in the team’s initial rank-ordered list of players before allocating minutes to everyone else. (We also have a method of penalizing a player’s talent ratings if he is forced to play significantly more MPG than his updated CARMELO projection recommends.) New for 2020, there is even a “load management” setting that allows certain stars to be listed under a program of reduced minutes during the regular season.Through this system, we will be able to account for most injuries, trades and other player movement throughout the season on a game-by-game basis.Because of the differences between a team’s talent at full strength and after accounting for injuries, we now list two separate CARMELO ratings on our interactive page: “Current CARMELO” and “Full-Strength CARMELO.” Current is what we’re using for the team’s next game and includes all injuries or rest days in effect at the moment. Full-strength is the team’s rating when all of its key players are in the lineup, even including those who have been ruled out for the season. This will help us keep tabs on which teams are putting out their best group right now, and which ones have room to improve at a later date (i.e., the playoffs) or otherwise are more talented than their current lineup gives them credit for.Game predictionsAs a consequence of the way we can generate separate depth charts for every team on a per-game basis, we can calculate separate CARMELO ratings for the teams in a matchup depending on who is available to play.For a given lineup, we combine individual players’ talent ratings into a team rating on both sides of the ball by taking the team’s average offensive and defensive rating (weighted by each player’s expected minutes) multiplied by 5 to account for five players being on the court at all times. Those numbers are then combined into a generic expected “winning percentage” via the Pythagorean expectation:Winning Percentage=(108+Team Offensive Rating)14(108+Team Offensive Rating)14+(108−Team Defensive Rating)14Winning Percentage=(108+Team Offensive Rating)14(108+Team Offensive Rating)14+(108−Team Defensive Rating)14That number is then converted into its Elo rating equivalent via:CARMELO Rating=1504.6−450×log10((1/Winning Percentage)−1)CARMELO Rating=1504.6−450×log10((1/Winning Percentage)−1)From there, we predict a single game’s outcome the same way we did when CARM-Elo was in effect. That means we not only account for each team’s inherent talent level, but we also make adjustments for home-court advantage (the home team gets a boost of about 92 CARMELO rating points), fatigue (teams that played the previous day are given a penalty of 46 CARMELO points), travel (teams are penalized based on the distance they travel from their previous game) and altitude (teams that play at higher altitudes are given an extra bonus when they play at home, on top of the standard home-court advantage). A team’s odds of winning a given game, then, are calculated via:Win Probability=1/(10−(CARMELO Differential+Bonus Differential)/400+1)Win Probability=1/(10−(CARMELO Differential+Bonus Differential)/400+1)Where CARMELO Differential is the team’s talent rating minus the opponent’s, and the bonus differential is just the difference in the various extra adjustments detailed above.Season simulations and playoff adjustmentsArmed with a list of injuries and other transactions for the entire league, our program can spit out separate CARMELO ratings for every single game on a team’s schedule. For instance, if we know a player won’t be available until midseason, the depth-chart sorting algorithm won’t allow him to be included on a team’s roster — and therefore in the team’s CARMELO ratings — until his estimated return date.Those game-by-game CARMELO ratings are then used to simulate out the rest of the season 50,000 times, Monte Carlo-style. The results of those simulations — including how often a team makes the playoffs and wins the NBA title — are listed in our NBA Predictions interactive when it is set to “CARMELO” mode.It’s important to note that these simulations still run “hot,” like our other Elo-based simulations do. This means that after a simulated game, a team’s CARMELO rating is adjusted upward or downward based on the simulated result, which is then used to inform the next simulated game, and so forth until the end of the simulated season. This helps us account for the inherent uncertainty around a team’s CARMELO rating, though the future “hot” ratings are also adjusted up or down based on our knowledge of players returning from injury or being added to the list of unavailable players.For playoff games, we make a few special changes to the team CARMELO process explained above. For one thing, teams play their best players more often in the playoffs, so our depth-chart algorithm has leeway to bump up a player’s MPG in the postseason if he usually logs a lot of minutes and/or has a good talent rating. This year, CARMELO outputs a separate recommended-minutes-per-game projection for both the regular season and the playoffs.We also have added a feature whereby players with a demonstrated history of playing better (or worse) in the playoffs will get a boost (or penalty) to their offensive and defensive talent ratings in the postseason. For most players, these adjustments are minimal at most, but certain important players — such as LeBron James — will be projected to perform better on a per-possession rate in the playoffs than the regular season. (Truly, he will be in “playoff mode.”)And we continue to give a team an extra bonus for having a roster with a lot of playoff experience. We calculate a team’s playoff experience by averaging the number of prior career playoff minutes played for each player on its roster, weighted by the number of minutes the player played for the team in the regular season. For every playoff game, this boost is added to the list of bonuses teams get for home court, travel and so forth, and it is used in our simulations when playing out the postseason.The complete history of the NBAIf you preferred our old Elo system without any of the fancy bells and whistles detailed above, you can still access it using the NBA Predictions interactive by toggling its setting to the “pure Elo” forecast.This method still has the normal game-level adjustment for home-court advantage, but it doesn’t account for travel, rest or altitude; it doesn’t use a playoff-experience bonus; and it has no knowledge of a team’s roster — it only knows game results. It also doesn’t account for any offseason transactions; instead, it reverts every team ¼ of the way toward a mean Elo rating of 1505 at the start of every season. We use a K-factor of 20 for our NBA Elo ratings, which is fairly quick to pick up on small changes in team performance.You can also still track a team’s Elo rating in our Complete History of the NBA interactive, which shows the ebbs and flows of its performance over time. This number won’t be adjusted for roster changes, but it should remain a nice way to visualize a team’s trajectory throughout its history. Version History4.0 CARMELO updated with the DRAYMOND metric, a playoff adjustment to player ratings and the ability to account for load management. Pure Elo ratings now use a K-factor of 20 in both the regular season and the playoffs.3.1 Estimated overnight ratings added as a stopgap between game results and data updates.3.0 CARMELO is introduced to replace CARM-Elo. Pure Elo ratings are adjusted to have variable K-factors depending on the stage of the season being predicted.2.1 CARM-Elo is modified to include a playoff experience adjustment.2.0 CARM-Elo ratings are introduced. Seasonal mean-reversion for pure Elo is set to 1505, not 1500.1.0 Pure Elo ratings are introduced for teams going back to 1946-47. Related ArticlesThe Complete History Of The NBAHow We Calculate NBA Elo RatingsThe Best NBA Teams Of All Time, According To EloHow Our 2015-16 NBA Predictions WorkWhy The Warriors And Cavs Are Still Big FavoritesFrom The Warriors To The Knicks, How We’re Predicting The 2018-19 NBA
Torrance Gibson checking into the team hotel before 2016 fall camp. Credit: Sheridan Hendrix | Lantern PhotographerJust a week after OSU coach Urban Meyer announced redshirt freshman wide receiver Torrance Gibson had practiced for the first time in 10 days, Gibson has been suspended for the entire 2016 season for a violation of team rules.Gibson took a redshirt last season after injuring his ankle. It was rumored another key factor in the decision to redshirt the former No. 6 athlete in the class of 2015 was problems with Gibson in the classroom.Gibson played in the 2016 spring game for the Gray team scoring twice in his first action in Ohio Stadium.